Several interesting patterns are evident in these data. Senate elections held between 20, including special elections. Table 1 summarizes the results of the 174 U.S. With neither party holding a clear advantage, control of the Senate will likely come down to a half dozen or so competitive contests in which the strengths and weaknesses of individual candidates could be crucial. The results of this seat-by-seat analysis were consistent with the national forecast from the generic ballot model. I then applied the findings from these earlier elections to the 35 contests taking place this year in order to predict their outcomes. Given the uncertainty of the overall results of the 2022 Senate elections, I decided to conduct a seat-by-seat analysis of all 174 Senate races since 2012 to see what factors have influenced the results of these contests. That was mainly because Republicans currently hold 21 of the 35 seats that are up for election in 2022. In the case of the Senate, however, the results indicated that the outcome was likelier to be close to a standoff. With Republicans enjoying a consistent lead of 2-3 points on the generic ballot according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average, the results indicated that the GOP was very likely to gain enough seats in November to take control of the House of Representatives. In a previous article in the Crystal Ball, I examined the outlook for the 2022 House and Senate elections at the national level based on the generic ballot forecasting model. What the last decade’s Senate results tell us about 2022 But poor candidates could hurt their chances, as they have in some other recent Senate races. Based on the fundamentals of state partisanship, incumbency, and the national political environment, Republicans have a good chance to pick up at least a seat and take back control of the upper chamber. Democrats now hold a tiny Senate majority in large part because of their superior performance in otherwise Republican-leaning states, a performance they may find difficult to sustain because of deepening partisan polarization. Presidential primaries are held early in the year of the Presidential election, at a date to be determined by the NH Secretary of State.- Senate elections have become firmly yoked to their state’s presidential leanings. Primaries for state-wide and Congressional elections are held in even-numbered years, the second Tuesday of September. Presidential elections are held every four years, on the same day. State-wide and Congressional elections are held in even-numbered years, on the Tuesday after the first Monday of November. Town elections are held the second Tuesday of March. Town Elections: Polls are usually at the Lawrence Barn at 28 Depot Road State and Federal Elections: Polls are usually at the Hollis Brookline High School at 24 Cavalier Court State General Election - Tuesday November 8, 2022, 7am-7pm Processing of absentee ballots on election day will start at 9AM. State Primary Election - Tuesday September 13, 2022, 7am-7pm at the Lawrence Barn, 28 Depot Road
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |